England need four points from their final two group games to be certain of qualification to the 2022 World Cup.
England’s lead at the top of Group I was cut to three points last month as they were held to a 1-1 draw with Hungary at Wembley, while Poland beat Albania 1-0 to move into second place.
Gareth Southgate’s side can still secure qualification with a game to spare if they beat Albania at Wembley on Friday November 12 and Poland drop points away to Andorra.
They can also secure their place at the tournament with a game to spare if they draw with Albania – but only in the unlikely event that Poland lose against minnows Andorra.
Given Poland will be expected to beat Andorra, who are ranked 153rd in the world, the likelihood is that England will not be certain of qualification until after their final group game away to bottom side San Marino on Monday November 15.
Hamilton under Brazil investigation for Merc infringement
Hamilton leaves Verstappen trailing in qualifying triumph
Alves agrees Barca return on free transfer
England player ratings: Kane, Maguire hit back
Smith expected to be offered Norwich job
World Cup Euro Qualifiers: Who’s through, who needs what?
Van Bronckhorst on shortlist to succeed Gerrard at Rangers
And with only a first-placed finish guaranteeing qualification, there is still little margin for error – particularly given that reaching Qatar with a second-placed finish is not straightforward.
The 10 runners-up from the group stage will join two group winners from last season’s Nations League in a mini-tournament in March that will see only three more teams qualify.
England could still find themselves involved in that scrap if they drop points in both of their final two group games.
But should England fans really be worried?
Should two teams be locked on the same number of points, qualifying will be decided on goal difference before the head-to-head record is considered. England currently have a goal difference of +21 compared to Poland’s +17 and Albania’s +5.
With Albania losing at home to Poland, England’s draw with Hungary effectively wrapped up qualification to the finals in Qatar next year because they will almost certainly get the three extra points they need in San Marino on the final matchday.
Their goal difference would likely be too much for Poland in the worst case scenario of them losing to Albania at Wembley.
When and where is the 2022 World Cup?
The 2022 World Cup is taking place in Qatar in the winter months rather than the usual summer ones, due to the heat.
The tournament kicks off on Monday November 21 at the Al Bayt stadium in Al Khor with a match that will feature the host country.
The final will be played at the Lusail Stadium in Doha a week before Christmas on Sunday December 18.
What is the World Cup format and schedule?
The tournament will feature 32 teams in eight groups of four.
Four matches will be played each day during the group stage, which will run over a 12-day period and see winners and runners-up progress to the round of 16.
Matches will only be assigned to particular venues after the finals draw, so organisers can choose optimal kick-off times to suit television audiences in different countries, as well as supporters out in Qatar.
The finals draw is scheduled to take place in April 2022, after the March window for international fixtures.
Unlike at Euro 2020, there will be a third-place play-off game on December 17.
Group stage: November 21- December 2
Round of 16: December 3-6
Quarter-finals: December 9/10
Semi-finals: December 13/14
Final: December 18
What happens to the Premier League in 2022/23?
The Premier League has confirmed key dates for the 2022/23 campaign, with the season adjusted to accommodate a World Cup that takes place in the middle of the domestic calendar.
The season will start a week earlier than normal on August 6 2022, with 16 matchdays taking place up to the weekend of November 12/13, before the tournament kicks off on November 21.
The Premier League will resume on Boxing Day following the World Cup final, which takes place on December 18.
The final match round of the 2022/23 season will be played on May 28 2023.
How to follow England’s World Cup Qualifiers
Follow England vs Albania on Tuesday (kick-off 7.45pm) and San Marino vs England on Monday (kick-off 7.45pm) with our live blogs, and watch free match highlights on the Sky Sports website and app, as well as the Sky Sports Football YouTube channel.