Southampton’s improving defensive axis can lead them to win a without conceding at Aston Villa on Friday Night Football, predicts tipster Jones Knows, who previews all seven Premier League fixtures across the weekend.
Aston Villa vs Southampton, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
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Armel Bella-Kotchap and Mohamed Salisu are a defensive duo to take very seriously. It’s an exciting prospect for Southampton as Ralph Hasenhuttl, a very attack-minded manager, has never truly had a quality base to work from.
In four games since playing as a centre-back pair, Saints have conceded an expected goals figure of just 3.59 and that includes playing Chelsea and Manchester United. Only Arsenal and Tottenham have recorded a better defensive figure in that period. The markets however are pricing up Southampton on their long-term defensive data under Hasenhuttl which ranks them as one of the worst defences in the Premier League.
A run of no clean sheets in their last 12 Premier League games is surely going to end shortly on the basis of their newfound defensive solidity, potentially at Villa Park against a very tame Aston Villa attack. Only Bournemouth have had fewer shots and created a lower expected goals figure per game than Steven Gerrard’s team this season.
This defensive improvement at Saints is changing my usual betting attack when it comes to Southampton games. Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals has been a profitable angle over the past year but with this Bella-Kotchap and Salisu axis having a massive effect on their defensive output, it’s time to oppose goals.