Elliott & Gundogan to fire first at 125/1 – Jones Knows

Our tipster Jones Knows has a raft of big-priced goalscorer bets to attack this weekend with Harvey Elliott at the centre of his betting plan.

How did we get on last weekend?

Four points were given back to those greedy bookmakers but not without some promise.

I would argue two of the losers were examples of how losing bets can sometimes be great bets despite the result. I felt we got ahead of the market in tipping up Solly March (14/1) and Marc Cucurella (18/1) to score. Both had four shots between them and one of those efforts could have easily nestled.

If they remain playing in the same positions, a goal or two will certainly be dropping their way in the next few weeks. The Southampton half-time/full-time bet was certainly along the right lines as they had the look of being overpriced at Leicester. My greediness in hunting a bigger price got the better of me there as Saints won 2-1. Greedy boy. No change there.

Less said the better about Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea winning to nil at 16/1. Let’s hope that bravery and aggression shown by Leeds and Newcastle against the big boys continues as it made for two fantastic football matches and a proper payday for those who foresaw taking on the odds-on jollies.

P+L = -4.5

2pts on Harvey Elliott to score anytime vs Bournemouth (11/4 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!) & 0.5pts on Elliott to score two or more (22/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Liverpool have been crying out for attacking dynamism from midfield to support their front three and it looks like Jurgen Klopp is pushing Elliott to the fore in that regard. Yes, he is without a Premier League goal as yet but let’s not forget he has only started six games for Klopp at this level and especially this season since returning from injury he looks a player capable of chipping in with plenty of goals over a long period. In his last two starts against Crystal Palace and Manchester United, dovetailing down the right with Mohamed Salah and Trent Alexander-Arnold, he has posted seven shots on goal and nine touches in the opposition box.

That equated to an expected goals tally of 0.56, showcasing that the quality of chances dropping his way will be taken by a player of his quality sooner or later.

The oddsmakers have not really cottoned onto his threat in the goalscorer markets as yet and my eye lit up at the prospect of him scoring this weekend at 11/4 with Sky Bet against a team Liverpool are 1/14 with Sky Bet to beat. I will be backing that with double stakes and having a small play him scoring twice, too, at 22/1 with Sky Bet.

1pt on Alex Iwobi to be carded in Brentford vs Everton (15/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Alex Iwobi is going through a Joelinton-like makeover at Everton. From being a borderline figure of fun, he has quickly become an automatic selection that the crowd are absolutely loving. What’s even more remarkable is that he’s achieving this status as a central midfielder. Frank Lampard has made him the cornerstone of his midfield, starting him in the last 15 Premier League games.

In that period, just three Premier League players have created more chances from open play than Iwobi’s 24 – Martin Odegaard, Harry Kane and Kevin De Bruyne.

No player in the Premier League has won the ball back for his side more than his tally of 109. The next player in is Emile-Pierre Hojbjerg with 100.

Iwobi has made 17 fouls too in that time – only eight players have made more in the Premier League. He was carded in last weekend’s 1-1 draw with Nottingham Forest for stopping a quick counter-attack, which was surprisingly his first card in that 15-game run. Perhaps that’s why he’s the rank outsider at a whopping 15/2 with Sky Bet to be carded this weekend. A central midfielder with his all-action style and his recent combative record should be plenty shorter than that for a yellow card. We must punish them.

1pt on Ilkay Gundogan to score first vs Crystal Palace (9/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Trying to formulate profitable strategies to get ahead of bookmakers prices is arguably one of the most important weapons in order to make long-term profit in this game. I’ve got one I’m going to share with you surrounding the goalscoring prices of Erling Haaland.

To put it simply, against teams that are likely to play a low block in order to frustrate City I think the first goalscorer price on Haaland is way too short in the market. There is already plenty of evidence to suggest that in just three matches played his presence is actually creating more space for his team-mates to become the first goalscorer in a match rather than himself, who is being marked closely by two or even three centre-backs. When teams have to come out and chase City, that’s when Haaland is likely to be very dangerous and merit the current goalscorer quotes. But early on in games, his threat might be negated. We have already seen that by Ilkay Gundogan netting the first goal in the win at Bournemouth and 3-3 draw at Newcastle, where he was priced around the 8/1 mark on both occasions.

It could be a case of rinse and repeat that this weekend against Crystal Palace, who will sit deep and defend in numbers early on like they did in their 1-1 draw with Liverpool. Using my theory, that makes Haaland insanely short at 15/8 with Sky Bet to score the first goal and offers opportunities elsewhere in Gundogan (9/1), Kevin De Bruyne (6/1) and whoever starts in the City front three.

At the prices, I’m happy to play Gundogan this weekend. A player that has significantly improved his goal output in the last two years. He has now scored 29 goals in 93 appearances in all competitions since start of the 20/21 season, including three in his last two home games. It does make the 9/1 look rather bulky.

0.5pt on Gundogan and Elliott both to score first (125/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Why not, eh?

1pt on Dan Burn to score first (66/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Wolves have conceded the second highest expected goals figure from set-pieces so far this season (1.69) – a small sample size of course – but they did look a very technical, diminutive team against Spurs barring the two centre-backs so it would not surprise me if this area of defence becomes a problem for them in the long-run.

Dan Burn has been threatening to open his account for Newcastle, missing a free header from 12 yards out in the recent 0-0 with Brighton – one of five shots he has had on goal already this season. If you stretch the data back to when he joined Newcastle in January, he ranks fifth in the Premier League for average touches in the opposition box per-90 minutes (1.58) and sixth for total shots per-90 (0.84). He is the main target point for all Newcastle’s set-pieces and sooner or later a huge chance is going to drop his way. It could be this weekend.