Our tipster Jones Knows is on the hunt for a much-needed winner in his best bets column and is backing James Maddison and Harvey Barnes to shine.
How did we get on last time out?
One of the trickiest parts of this job is trying to decipher what constitutes a ‘best bet’ across the 10 Premier League games I’m analysing on a weekly basis. That is usually decided by how wrong the price is, thrown in with a bit of gut instinct. Now and again bets mentioned in the overall prediction column that don’t quite hit the level of value required to be classed as a best bet go and fly in, while the best bets fall by the wayside. Last weekend was a prime example.
Leandro Trossard advised to score anytime at 9/2 and James Maddison to score first at 6/1 both copped in the prediction column but the best bets went south, taking us further into the red.
Ruben Neves to score a penalty at 15/2 was overpriced but it just wasn’t the right situation to back Wolves, with confidence so low in attacking areas. He’s going to bag one very soon, so keep it on your mind. I was getting quite hopeful of Arsenal and Tottenham ending in a draw and over 50 bookings points at half-time but ironically it was the sending-off of Emerson Royal that ended those dreams. We go again.
P+L = -7.5
1pt on James Maddison to score in a Leicester win at Bournemouth (7/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
1pt on Harvey Barnes to score in a Leicester win (5/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
1pt on Maddison and Barnes both to score in a Leicester win (14/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Remember when I tipped Leicester to finish top six this season? A sackable offence, probably.
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But, like Brendan Rodgers, I have ducked and dived to great effect. Rodgers’ team remain an attacking force to be reckoned with when on song – as seen in the comfortable win over Nottingham Forest. Harvey Barnes and James Maddison are top-six players, capable of extreme quality at any point and Leicester’s run of scoring in 27 of their last 28 away games is pretty extraordinary.
Now, at the start of the season if you were offering me 11/10 on Leicester beating Bournemouth away from home, I’d have snapped your hand off, snapped your other hand off and taken both legs for dessert. Have things changed too much from when the first ball was kicked? Bournemouth are tougher to beat now but remain the worst team in the Premier League according to the metrics, losing all four of the expected goals battles under Gary O’Neil.
When adding it all up, it’s hard not to get excited over the prospects of Barnes and Maddison playing central roles in an away win.
Maddison now has 14 goal involvements in his last 11 Premier League appearances – only Harry Kane, Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne have produced a heftier output. Of those 14 involvements, nine have been goals, identifying him as Leicester’s most dangerous attacking weapon. He did us a favour by scoring first last weekend at 6/1 and his price of 9/2 with Sky Bet for him to score in an away win here is too big to turn down.
Backing Barnes also at 5/1 to score in an away win makes perfect financial sense. When fit, he is a player capable of an England call and is very direct in his approach, which always makes him an option in the shots and goals markets. He is averaging 3.19 shots per 90 minutes in 2022 to a goal ratio of one every 0.35 games, a statistic that makes him the 26th most clinical attacker in the entire Premier League of players to have played 1,000 minutes since January 1.
A player with that record makes significant appeal not only in his goalscorer price but also his shot chances where he is priced up at 5/6 with Sky Bet to have three or more and 2/1 for four or more. Take your pick on an array of options involving Maddison and Barnes or go for the jackpot of both to score in a Leicester win at 14/1 with Sky Bet.
There is money to be made.
1.5pt treble on West Ham to beat Fulham & under 3.5 goals, Solly March to have two or more shots vs Tottenham and Harvey Barnes to have three or more shots vs Bournemouth (8/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
In my quest to back under goals in West Ham vs Fulham, due to both teams liking a counter-attack, I’m also going to get greedy and throw a West Ham win into the mix as I’m not convinced this Fulham defence is up to Premier League standard despite a bold start to life back at the top table. They have shipped at least two goals in seven of their nine games across all competitions this season, including against Crawley Town in the Carabao Cup. And, their expected goals against data in the Premier League is officially the worst in the league now after last weekend against Newcastle (15.2). Doubts about the fitness of Aleksandar Mitrovic, who has scored 68 goals in his last 76 games for club and country, also make it hard to foresee a positive Fulham result.
I’m also chucking in two very strong value plays in the shots market. Of course, one of them is Solly March, who looks set to continue playing in a very attacking role for new Brighton boss Roberto De Zerbi. He should cover his two shots line against Tottenham, who ship shots for fun. And, as mentioned above, Barnes should see plenty of action at Bournemouth and can fire at least three shots in the game. The 8/1 looks worth taking with all three single plays screaming with value.