PL Predictions: Arsenal to dent West Ham charge

After nailing six winning betting angles out of nine – all at odds-against – last weekend, plus a 7/2 winning main bet, Jones Knows is back for the midweek action.

Brighton vs Wolves, Wednesday 7.30pm

These two teams have scored just four goals between them since November 5, across nine fixtures, with Wolves failing to score in four of their last five matches and creating a combined expected goals total of just 2.55. A 0-0 has to be a runner here at 13/2 with Sky Bet.

A much better angle on offer relates to the amount of cards being shown though. Referee Tony Harrington takes charge of his first Premier League game here and if he follows the same pattern as fellow debutants at the top level, he will be a busy man with his cards.

The last six referees to take charge of a Premier League game for the first time average 5.1 yellow cards shown per 90 minutes. That is way above the average of 3.2 cards per 90 minutes in all Premier League matches in the last five years, with new referees keen to lay down the law.

Players are very aware of the referee’s inexperience at the top level. As seen with Michael Sailsbury’s debut in Palace vs Aston Villa, there were lots of occasions where he was surrounded and hounded to put pressure on his decision making. It resulted in six yellow cards being shown and an overturned red card for Douglas Luiz. The same was seen in Wolves vs Burnley where John Brooks took charge for the first time in the Premier League, showing five cards.

Both these teams are averaging around four cards in their matches this season, so the 50+ booking point angle at 5/4 looks a strong play, with the higher lines also worth a look.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0

BETTING ANGLE: 50+ booking points (5/4 with Sky Bet)

Burnley vs Watford, Wednesday 7.30pm

Burnley owe me a result. The 1-0 defeat at Newcastle hurt my wallet as I had invested in Sean Dyche’s ability to win ‘six pointers’. Burnley are usually very hard to beat in those scenarios.

In the last three seasons in 29 games against teams that finished that season in the bottom five, Burnley have lost just four of those games, winning 16 at a healthy strike rate of 56 per cent. Two of those defeats can be excused, too, as a 4-2 reverse at Fulham came early in the season and the 1-0 loss at Sheffield United at the end of last season was very much a dead rubber. When it matters, Burnley can be relied upon to deliver in a relegation scrap.

Watford are brittle in key areas of the pitch – as seen in their collapse at Brentford on Friday. They have now gone 26 Premier League games without a clean sheet – and remain the only side in England’s top-four tiers this season yet to register a shut-out.

I’m all over the 11/10 for a home win and such was Nick Pope’s form in the draw with West Ham, the 11/4 for a Burnley win to nil also makes appeal.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0

BETTING ANGLE: Burnley to win to nil (11/4 with Sky Bet)

Crystal Palace vs Southampton, Wednesday 7.30pm

Southampton remain a very positive, attack-minded team whose style allows them to progress into dangerous areas of the pitch. Once there, a lack of quality is to blame for their poor conversion rate. That makes them hard to fancy in any traditional match outcome or goals markets, hence why I’d slightly favour Palace in this match-up. However, one area where they are very reliable is their ability to win corners due to that positive style of football under Ralph Hasenhuttl.

The adventurous nature of both their full-backs is helping to keep those numbers high to the extent that only Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea have won more corners than Saints this season (98).

Sky Bet have dangled the carrot of odds of 6/4 for Southampton to win six or more corners in this one – a price that is drenched in value. It’s a bet that would have copped in nine of the last 10 Southampton fixtures and one that is given further confidence by Palace’s average of 5.5 corners conceded per 90 minutes this season. In what should be an exciting game, full of tempo, I’m all over the Saints corner line.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

BETTING ANGLE: Southampton to win six or more corners (6/4 with Sky Bet)

Arsenal vs West Ham, Wednesday 8pm

Arsenal are making The Emirates a fortress. I want to back them here at 23/20 with Sky Bet.

They have won eight of their last nine matches at home, winning the last four without conceding a goal. Thou shall not pass the axis of Aaron Ramsdale, Ben White and the impressive Gabriel.

Further back, they have won 10 of the last 12 home fixtures. Plus, that aforementioned axis has still yet to concede a goal before the 38th minute in any of their 13 games playing as a trio. It’s providing their team-mates a fine base to work from.

West Ham’s attack may struggle to break through. Since beating Liverpool, the Hammers have picked up just five points from the last 15 available, failing to beat Burnley and Brighton along the way.

One area of the pitch where West Ham will have an edge is in central midfield as Declan Rice’s form continues to impress. To my eye there isn’t an better all-round midfielder than him in the Premier League – he can do it all. He ranks second in the Premier League for distance carried with the ball this season (3804m) – only behind Allan Saint-Maximin.

I’m absolutely convinced he’s going to become even more of a force in the next few months. The more confident and experienced he becomes at driving into the final third, the more he’ll become overpriced in various shots and goals markets. I like the look of the 9/2 for him to have a shot on target from outside the area. He’s fired six shots on target in his last seven Premier League fixtures and went close with an off-target attempt in the draw with Burnley.

Arsenal should afford Rice plenty of space to work in, too. They are happy to defend a little deeper than most teams in the Premier League and no team has conceded more shots on target from outside the box this season (29). To expand on that further, since Mikel Arteta took over in December 2019, only Aston Villa, Newcastle and Crystal Palace have conceded more shots on target from outside the area (93).

Rice will be licking his lips. The 12/1 with Sky Bet for an Arsenal win and Rice to hit the target from outside the box is very chunky.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

BETTING ANGLE: Arsenal to win & Declan Rice to have a shot on target from outside the box (12/1 with Sky Bet)

Leicester vs Tottenham, Thursday 7.30pm

Keeping ahead of the markets in this game is a vital commodity for anyone seriously trying to take down the bookmakers. Being across the latest team news is one way to keep ahead of that curve, especially in the current Covid world. I’m very keen on the chances of Tottenham in this one but will be waiting for the confirmed line-ups before having a play myself.

Spurs haven’t played since December 5 – a huge advantage against a Leicester team that will be playing their third game in six days – but there is an unknown about which Spurs players are available. Son Heung-Min, Harry Kane and Lucas Moura have the ability to rip through such a leaky defence but if one or even two of them aren’t available, the lack of strength in depth in reserve would put me off investing in the away win.

The ‘never trust one run’ theory applies to Leicester here, who roared back to form with goals galore and a clean sheet against Newcastle but it only told half the story. There was nothing in the game up until the dubious penalty call and Leicester then went on to play very savvy and clinical football on the counter to rack up a highly flattering 4-0 score. Newcastle won the shot count, corner count and had more possession, although Leicester did carry significantly more quality in the final third.

A well-rested Spurs will pose a bigger task for Leicester to break down under Antonio Conte, who has overseen an incredible defensive process since he was appointed.

In four games, Spurs have conceded just once with their expected goals against figures and shots faced numbers only bettered by Manchester City and Liverpool during that period. They will allow Leicester more of the ball, too, something the Foxes can struggle with at home where their counter-attack is nullified. They’ve only won one of their last six games when enjoying more than 50 per cent of the ball, failing to beat Aston Villa, Southampton, Burnley, Brighton and Arsenal – teams you’d expect Leicester to be putting away.

The 11/8 for Tottenham draw no bet is on my radar as is the 4/6 for Tottenham to win or draw – all team news dependent of course.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1

BETTING ANGLE: Tottenham draw no bet (11/8 with Sky Bet)

Chelsea vs Everton, Thursday 7.45pm

Not sure I’d want to be lashing into Chelsea here at 2/9 with Sky Bet having watched them stumble their way to a rather fortunate victory over Leeds at the weekend. The Blues have dropped their levels in the last three weeks and it’s hard to pinpoint why and how it’s happened. Even Thiago Silva looked rushed and sloppy against Leeds.

Perhaps it’s just a confidence thing and Everton might just be the perfect tonic for the champions of Europe to find it again. Everton are winless in six away league games, losing each of their last four in a row and have a habit under Rafa Benitez of only asking questions of teams when one or two goals behind. They can’t afford to do that at Stamford Bridge.

I’m going to swerve the match prices and concentrate on player shots with Antonio Rudiger still overpriced in this particular market.

Rudiger, who loves a strike from distance too, has managed at least a shot on goal in 14 of his last 15 appearances across all competitions and has had two or more shots in six of his last 12 Premier League matches. Rudiger is a threat from set pieces, an area Everton in which are notoriously sloppy without Yerry Mina. On Sunday, James Tomkins scored the eighth goal Everton have conceded this season from set pieces this season.

They’ll be soaking up pressure and shots should be coming at Jordan Pickford from all angles. Rudiger can fire two of them at 9/4 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

BETTING ANGLE: Antonio Rudiger to have two or more shots at goal (9/4 with Sky Bet)

Liverpool vs Newcastle, Thursday 8pm

Say a little prayer for the Newcastle defence. Liverpool are 1/11 for a home win and with good reason.

With a routine victory on the cards for Liverpool, we could see a scenario where the game is all-but over as a contest by 60 minutes. That has got me interested in the game producing a low card count. Liverpool games against lower-ranked teams are usually low card affairs due to opposition teams unwilling or unable to make the game an open affair. One-sided matches usually are low on cards.

In the last 22 fixtures against teams that finished the season in the bottom four or are currently in the bottom four, Liverpool’s games have averaged just 1.7 cards per 90 minutes.

Interestingly, eight of those fixtures produced no cards for both teams which is becoming a common theme in these types of fixtures as five of the last seven have seen the game end with the card count at zero. Two of those fixtures – Liverpool 2-0 Burnley and West Brom 1-2 Liverpool – were refereed by Mike Dean, who is seemingly allowing the game to flow much more than he did in his younger days.

He takes charge here which only adds more fuel to the low card argument. He also refereed Liverpool vs Brighton this season and it took him 89 minutes to brandish the first yellow card before then showing another three in stoppage time. In a one-sided game that could descend into a pedestrian tempo, the 12/1 for Dean to show no cards is worth a tickle.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0

BETTING ANGLE: Neither team to be shown a card (12/1 with Sky Bet)