Who will win season-ending WTA Finals in Indian Wells?

Marion Bartoli, Madison Keys and Laura Robson give their predictions ahead of the season-ending WTA Finals in Indian Wells.

Four players are returning to the year-end event, with three set to make their debut in the absence of world No 1 and reigning champion Elena Rybakina, who pulled out on Saturday night due to her body “not being physically ready to compete”.

Who will win the tournament in the California desert and who will be the dark horse? We’ve asked our panel of experts for their predictions.

Group 1
[4] Coco Gauff
[5] Jessica Pegula
[8] Linda Noskova
[10] Marta Kostyuk

Group 2
[2] Aryna Sabalenka
[3] Mirra Andreeva
[6] Elina Svitolina
[7] Karolina Muchova

Marion Bartoli’s winner is…

I’m picking Aryna Sabalenka.

Sabalenka has won 85 per cent of her hard-court matches this year, 34 wins from 40, which is the best percentage of the eight qualifiers. The strongest argument for me is what she did in March. She won 12 matches in a row to complete the ‘Sunshine Double’, beating Rybakina in the Indian Wells final and again, in straight sets, in the Miami semi-final before beating Coco Gauff for the title. Add the Brisbane title and finals at both hard-court Grand Slams, and you can see how consistently she’s put herself in a position to win on this surface.

November in Indian Wells is a different test. The cooler desert evenings could change how the ball comes through the court.

She’s played only three matches since the US Open final – so three and a half weeks between her last match and the start of the Finals. I’d expect her to have fresh legs, which matters if she goes deep into the week. The question is how quickly she finds her competitive rhythm. As a coach, I’ll be watching how deep she returns and how balanced she is when she goes after that first groundstroke. In a round robin, you can recover from an early loss, but your first opponent is already one of the best players in the world.

Laura Robson’s winner is…

Aryna Sabalenka.

Marion Bartoli’s dark horse is…

My dark horse is Mirra Andreeva. She’s already world No 3 and a Grand Slam champion, so nobody in that locker room is overlooking her.

Look at who she beat to win Indian Wells last year. She beat Rybakina, Svitolina, Swiatek and then Sabalenka, coming back from a set down in the final. That run tells you a lot about her. She dealt with Rybakina’s ability to take time away, with Svitolina making her earn every point, and with the weight of shot that Swiatek and Sabalenka can put on you. Those are very different problems to solve in the same week, especially when you’re 17.

This year she’s won Adelaide outdoors on hard, Linz indoors on hard and her first Grand Slam at Roland-Garros. She also reached the final in Beijing, so we’ve seen her play well on hard courts deep into the season. What tips it for me is the quality of the players she’s already beaten here and how well her game matches up against the two favourites.

What I love about her game is that she can absorb a very hard ball and change direction before her opponent has recovered. Against Sabalenka, watch for the backhand down the line after she’s taken a heavy ball crosscourt. Suddenly Sabalenka has to hit on the move.

If Andreeva can take away the easy angle on that first groundstroke, she has a much better chance of getting into the rally. And when she’s stretched, she can change the height of the ball to give herself time to recover. If the cooler evening conditions give her a fraction more time to defend, that helps, provided she gets enough depth on the next ball.

The test in her first WTA Finals is whether she can protect her own second serve and be brave enough to attack theirs.

Her movement and backhand will keep her in points. To beat the best players in this field, she’ll also need to step forward when she earns the short ball. She’s already shown she can do that against both favourites at Indian Wells. That’s why I can see her winning the whole thing.

Martina Navratilova’s dark horse is…

Jessica Pegula hasn’t won a Grand Slam this year, so maybe this is the big one for her this year.

Madison Keys’ dark horse is…

Mirra Andreeva. She’s a great player, and the conditions in the desert really complement her strengths. I think that’s a big reason why she’s enjoyed so much success there and has been able to produce some of her best tennis, including her title-winning run in 2025.

Laura Robson’s dark horse is…

Elina Svitolina.

Stream tennis with no contract on NOW and the Sky Sports App. You can watch the ATP Paris Masters live on Sky Sports this week with the WTA Finals in Indian Wells starting on Sunday.