Are the Chiefs still top dogs in the AFC?

Can the Kansas City Chiefs still claim to be top dogs in the AFC?

The Chiefs have gone to three-straight AFC Championship games, winning the last two and with one of those teeing up a Super Bowl win over the San Francisco 49ers. This squad’s pedigree is clear.

That said, there are signs of late that Kansas City’s hold over the conference is slipping. They’ve lost twice already this season, and three of their last five when you favourite in the defeat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV back in February.

Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens overcame their ‘Kryptonite’ in Week Two to prove their championship credentials, while Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers – who downed them the following Sunday – are set to challenge the Chiefs for supremacy in their own division over the next decade, let alone the conference.

The team that has yet to land a significant blow on KC, however, are the team they face on Sunday night and the one many fancy as favourite for the AFC this year, the Buffalo Bills.

In the two previous meetings between Mahomes and Bills quarterback Josh Allen, the Chiefs have been victorious – most recently, and most notably, in last season’s AFC Championship game.

The Bills were put away convincingly, 38-24, at Arrowhead Stadium, the location of this weekend’s meet which is being billed as another Championship preview – but who is to say things will be any different this time round?

Well, firstly, Buffalo come into the contest red hot! If the Chiefs have slightly stumbled out of the gate this season, it has been the opposite for the Bills (looking past an opening week upset loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers).

Since that Week One shock, Buffalo have put up a staggering 118 points on offense, compared to a paltry 21 given up as they’ve swept aside the Miami Dolphins, Washington Football Team and Houston Texans – earning shutouts to book-end that impressive stretch.

The defense is much-improved, leading the NFL in both scoring, allowing an average of just 11 points per game, and in total defense, 216.8 yards allowed per game.

And that is where the biggest shift is in terms of the two teams since they last locked horns. Buffalo’s D is ascending, while Kansas City’s is on pace for a record-breakingly bad year, ranking 31st out of 32 in both of those same two categories – 31.3 PPG allowed, 437.8 yards.

“We ask who need this one more? I think it’s Buffalo by a long shot,” Kyle Brandt said on Good Morning Football this week (weekdays, 12pm, Sky Sports NFL). “Allen talked a lot in the offseason about the Chiefs; they’re under no illusion that this is their boogeyman.

“If they lose now, while the Chiefs defense is terrible and meanwhile they’re shutting everybody out, this becomes a question of when are we going to beat these guys?

“Because Lamar [Jackson] is doing it, [Justin] Herbert is doing it. It’s time for them to.”

Allen and the Bills offense should feast on Sunday night. Although, the Chiefs should also get theirs – as impressive as the Buffalo defense has been, Mahomes and co represent a somewhat sterner challenge than Tua Tagovailoa, Taylor Heinicke, Davis Mills of the last three weeks.

Based on his opponent’s rank entering that week’s matchup, Mahomes is 4-0 against the No 1 ranked scoring defense in the league and 2-0 against the No 1 total defense across his career.

Mahomes and the Chiefs have, however, had more of an issue with turnovers this season than usual. Their star quarterback threw only five interceptions in 2019 and six over the whole of last season. He has four already through the first four weeks of this campaign, with the team’s seven total turnovers tied for third in the NFL.

“When you watch Mahomes the first few weeks, he is moving himself into trouble,” former NFL quarterback Chris Simms said on Pro Football Talk (weekdays, 7pm, Sky Sports NFL). “He is leaving plays on the field and has not played like the best quarterback in football.”

And the Bills defense, meanwhile, has a league-leading 11 takeaways on the year. This is a team built to take advantage of any KC errors on Sunday night.

“I think this is the best team in football,” Simms added. “And what is scary about Buffalo more than anything is I don’t think this team has even hit its groove yet.

“That’s when they’ll be really scary, with Allen and the passing game really takes off, to go with that defense which is on fire!”

The Bills are ready for their shot, and are looking to make it third time lucky as they look to dethrone the Chiefs atop the AFC.

Watch the Kansas City Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills from Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday Night Football, live on Sky Sports NFL from 1.20am, in the early hours of Monday morning.