Fancy a punt this weekend? Our tipster Jones Knows is in red hot form and is advising his followers to back a 14/1 treble this weekend.
How did we do last time?
After winners at 12/1, 7/1 and 6/1 the week before, there was an inevitability about the advised 14/1 treble on the last round of fixtures falling flat on its face just as a swarm of new followers jumped on the winning bandwagon.
Michael Keane got it off to an exciting start when doing the business against Manchester United to fire a shot at goal. However, we missed the bullseye when Wolves’ Hwang Hee-chan found a hot streak in front of goal to send our Newcastle double chance selection firmly down the toilet. Eventually, Arsenal failed to win at Brighton – and were actually very lucky to draw – so it would have only been heartbreak hotel syndrome on the final leg if we had got there.
Let’s hope this isn’t the start of a dry spell for the column as the greedy guts inside of me wants to take us towards the +100 points of profit. Am I wildly delusional or a dangerous punter packed full of confidence? Only time will tell. We’ve got three bets and three points to stake out this weekend.
Read on here for my main bets this weekend…
P+L = +42
Read Jones Knows’ Premier League predictions on Sky Sports
1pt on Liverpool, Manchester United and Chelsea to all fail to win this weekend (14/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
This Premier League gameweek certainly gave me headaches when trying to find angles for most of the match result markets which suggests this could be a bookmaker-friendly week in terms of results. I’m hoping to preempt that by taking on three of the big-wigs to fail to win.
Liverpool have only won two of their last six 12.30pm Saturday kick-offs. That may not sound too catastrophic, but all those fixtures came against teams that Liverpool were heavy favourites to beat.
In that run, they drew with Everton, Newcastle and Brighton while losing 3-1 at Leicester City. Throw in the likely absence of Alisson in goal due to his international commitments with Brazil – they have suffered shock defeats to Aston Villa (7-2) and Brighton (1-0) when he’s been missing before – then, at the odds available, the 5/2 about Watford winning or drawing the game seem very reasonable.
I still don’t want to back Manchester United, who are favourites for the win at Leicester at 21/20 with Sky Bet. They undoubtedly have the attacking firepower to take the game away from their hosts at any point but go into battle here with a weakened defence as Harry Maguire and Raphael Varane are both missing. That will give Leicester plenty of hope. They can get a result at home.
A look at the match prices for Chelsea‘s visit to Brentford certainly brings forward the argument that the Bees are still being underestimated by the markets. You can almost get 11/2 with Sky Bet for a home win and 5/2 for the Bees to avoid defeat – it’s a real tempter for a team that has only lost one of their last 19 league games across two seasons. And that defeat was a last-minute winner for Brighton in a game where there was nothing between the teams. Arsenal, Liverpool and West Ham have all been buzzed by Brentford – now it could be Chelsea’s turn.
With Patrick Bamford still missing for Leeds, there is juice to be had in Mateusz Klich’s price to score. One of the more underrated players in the Leeds team for a goal, Klich is given a huge amount of licence to drive into the box. Klich has had 19 touches in the opposition box in his last three matches and has posted an expected goal figure of 0.69 from his nine shots on goal. I’d recommend taking the 10/1 with Sky Bet for him to score the first goal with the added bonus that he’s likely to be on penalties in the absence of Bamford.
Mateusz Klich equalises for Leeds as Michael Keane looks on
1pt on Aston Villa to have six or more corners vs Wolves, both teams to score in Brentford vs Chelsea and Kurt Zouma to have one or more shots vs Everton (7/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Since switching to a back three and encouraging their wing-backs in Matt Targett and Matty Cash to play more aggressively, Aston Villa‘s corner count is seeing a sharp increase. In their last four fixtures against tough opponents like Tottenham, Manchester United, Everton and Chelsea, they have averaged 7.25 corners per 90 minutes.
Meanwhile, Chelsea‘s defensive process remains strong but certainly it’s not at the levels of last season. They are offering up good chances to the opposition and Brentford look good value to find the net. A figure of 1.45 expected goals conceded per 90 minutes in their last eight fixtures showcases that, albeit it’s included matches against Liverpool and Manchester City.
In fact, Chelsea have the biggest difference between goals conceded (3) and expected goals against (8.6) in the Premier League after the opening seven games – at 5.6. Perhaps this Chelsea defence isn’t as watertight as the actual numbers suggest? That makes the possibility of Brentford scoring in this game more likely than the odds on offer. Get on the both-teams-to-score train – it’s best bet of the weekend material.
And finally, there is absolutely no way I can let Kurt Zouma – arguably the most dangerous attacker of a set piece in the Premier League – go off odds-against to have a shot on goal vs Everton.